Some implications of the Mehlis report
October 26, 2005
Here some of the comments I made this afternoon during a general meeting at Chatham House, where I was part of a panel with my colleagues Nadim Shehadi (Middle East Program) and Elizabeth Wilmshurst (International Law Program), and the Syrian ambassador to London. Since I don't generally read from texts, this is not a verbatim, but rather an indication of some of the points I made before the general debate. This meeting was held just before the UN Security Council session on the Mehlis report.
No observer of Syrian politics could have been surprised by the regime's reaction to the Mehlis report; a strong denial of the accusations was to be expected, as were the claims that this was purely a politicized report. Sadly, the more Syria cries it is innocent, the more people are willing to believe the contrary.
There is a problem with official Syrian reactions to the report. Even though we have become accustomed to its frequent incoherence and indecisiveness, it is still intriguing to note that the Syrian regime has promised to cooperate fully with the continuing investigation under Detlev Mehlis, while simultaneously calling him every name in the book; how exactly is this going to proceed, and how much cooperation can be expected from a party that has already questioned (if not rejected) the integrity and the independence of the inquisitor?
There is no doubt that the Syrian regime has good reason to feel paranoid about the case being a political one. As far as Washington and its allies are concerned, it's a matter of when - and not if - some proof of Syria's guilt will be found, which explains US Ambassador John Bolton's announcement that "it's time for confessions." Even in the absence of confessions or of actual proof, it is unlikely that the US will be held back by this minor detail. After the infamous evidence presented by Colin Powell to the Security Council less than 3 years ago, it seems that the burden of proof is not one that concerns the US. Moreover, this time, America has more willing partners.
Public opinion matters, however, and the efforts to demonize the Syrian regime (often helped by the regime itself) are reaching a climax. There has been a gradual and rapid change in the media's tone, with most reports taking Syria's guilt in a number of issues as a given, with little analysis to counter it. With Iraq, the build-up to action took 12 years, and there remained a significant amount of people who weren't convinced that Saddam could deploy his WMDs in 45 minutes. In Syria's case, it is much easier to convince people that every possible mishap in Lebanon is Syria's fault (especially since it's often been the case). With Syria, the metamorphosis will be much quicker - even though the subsequent action will be different from that taken in Iraq.
The Bush administration has been more than eager to find the excuse that would allow it to put Syria in a corner and rain demands upon it, knowing Syria cannot possibly acquiesce to all; conveniently, much can be blamed on Syria. This is assuming that Bush's itch for regime change has been calmed for the moment and that he will take the advice of several allies (foremost of which the Israelis) preferring the status quo with a weakened regime. (It is ironic, really, that the US is punishing Syria - for having tried to impose its choice of leader on another people - by trying to impose its own choice of leader.
Of course, this is all the more reason the Syrian regime should have known what was coming. But as always, the regime doesn't take initiatives and only reacts (and much too late, to boot) in desperate 11th hour attempts to gather sympathy and support. The letter sent to the members of the UN Security Council yesterday has not been made public, but it is doubtful that a convincing argument will have been made, or that it will make any difference whatsoever at this stage. It is typical of Syrian regime behavior, and maddening that two years on the Security Council did not even serve to improve relations with key countries.
It is very telling that not a single official Arab voice has been heard since the Mehlis report was distributed. Perhaps that is best, for soon after Resolution 1559 was passed, several Arab countries were quick to advise Syria to comply. Of course, 1559 was technically easier for the regime to comply with, as it didn't touch its innermost circles. In fact, it was then easy for the regime to seek sympathy from the Syrian people, turning this into a nationalist issue in the face of increasingly vocal Lebanese opposition; even after Hariri's assassination, the Syrian people seemed to react in unison, feeling insulted and betrayed by the open displays of hostility from Lebanon. At the time, the regime had little to fear from its own people.
But Resolution 1595 is an entirely different matter, and the Syrian people are not as willing to demonstrate total support for the regime. Nobody is fooled by the makeshift demonstrations that took place yesterday in Damascus and Aleppo (as if Syria needed more economic paralysis); as usual, they were mostly composed of students and civil servants who had no choice in the matter. And as usual, it was a completely inappropriate - and completely useless - attempt to demonstrate popular support for the regime. I pass on the slogans repeated ad nauseam, when all pretense that this could have been a heartfelt outcry was dropped. Clearly, the regime has learned nothing, but it should think about the fact that the demonstrators fell far short of the advertised million.
On Sunday, hundreds of lawyers and judges marched to the UN's headquarters in Damascus to decry the report's partiality; again, the regime must have thought this would show the world that even legal professionals were on its side. All of this would have been a lot more meaningful had they all dared - or had they been allowed - to make a similar trek to the Ministry of Interior when Riad Seif, Mamoun Homsi and Aref Dalila were illegally arrested, "tried" and thrown into jail.
Be that as it may, the behavior of Syrian officials and Syrian media in the past few days has been rather indicative of the regime's mood. The press conference organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Saturday illustrates the defensive mode in which the Syrian regime finds itself. Additionally, since Friday, panel after panel of commentators and experts of all sorts have filled Syrian television screens, taking the place of the popular Ramadan series, to discuss the Mehlis report. Famous actors are shown in short interviews, mocking the report and showing no doubt that the US is out to get Syria no matter what it does. Although they've got a point, it is demoralizing to see talented Syrians forced to stoop to that level.
It seems uncharacteristic of Syria to talk openly about such a damning, or at least such an accusatory report; indeed, we are more accustomed to total silence from the Syrian regime. In my opinion, and for the first time in years, this merely shows just how much the regime is worried about the people's reactions, and it shows just how dispensable it fears it has become in their minds.
With the limited internet access in Syria, it is probable that few Syrians have had the chance to read the report and form their own opinions, which is why Syrian media has been having a field day ridiculing the findings and insisting on the political envelope. The Mehlis report couldn't even have been a crime novel, viewers were led to believe, for it fails to make the simplest links and suffers from numerous contradictions. Unfortunately, the sycophants that have filled Syrian airwaves do make a few good points and have occasionally made a reasonable case.
But that would be forgetting that most Syrians do have access to satellite television, and that the story told on other channels differs slightly. While Syrian commentators mentioned the suspect existence of more than one copy of the official report, they didn't volunteer the significance of the differences in the various versions, and kept mum about the names. By now, most Syrians will know who they are and how Detlev Mehlis's penultimate draft presents them, and they have understood the potential impact of their potential guilt.
The matter of Farouk Shara's alleged misleading statement takes the challenge a step further; not only does the Mehlis report potentially implicate the Syrian president's closest people, but it also pretends to send a message regarding the government (and not just the regime), and regarding Syria's general foreign policy in specific: the message, clearly, is that head hunting is now on at the Foreign Ministry - by whom remains to be seen - but contenders for the positions of Minister and Assistant Minister should apply, because this is one of the easier concessions the regime can make. This change should have been made ages ago, under no duress.
[Interestingly, Ghazi Kanan's name does not figure amongst those suspects, and this puts his death into a new perspective. Few tears were shed over his death; in fact, many people wondered whether more officials would become "suicidal," trying to redraw the map of internal Syrian politics and speculating on the coming changes. Kanan's sudden demise probably elicited quite a few sighs of relief from a number of Lebanese, who can only be hopeful that his in-depth knowledge about their dodgy backgrounds will have gone to the grave.]
It is likely that these names were "leaked" to signal to the Syrian regime the extent to which the UN (or the US really) is willing to go. This current report has synergy: its impact is greater than the sum of its parts. Taken apart, it holds little water legally. Taken as a whole, it is an ultimatum.
Come December 15, when the extension to the inquiry will end, the position of these figures will have depended on the cooperation Syria would have extended, and the promises it would have made. The Syrian regime should think very carefully about dismissing the current report's deficiencies as an indication of its own invulnerability. On the contrary, the weak report proves that the stakes are higher and the confrontation inevitable.
Technically, the present report's weaknesses should allow the Syrians to prove their innocence by cooperating fully. In a just court, if Syrian officials are truly innocent, they will have nothing to fear. If some should be found guilty, they must be handed to the court that will try the accused (as Bashar Assad's comment on CNN implied, and although it remains to be determined whether the eventual court will truly be just). The final report is not expected to be weaker than the present one; moreover, few people really believe that guilt or innocence is a real factor anymore.
This leaves the Syrian people - about whom nobody seems to care - in the most unenviable position of feeling forced to support a regime that does not deserve to be supported (not that they're necessarily united in opinion). While the regime wouldn't mind promising America the moon (having already supported in numerous fields, starting with intelligence and ending with torture), it has not demonstrated an ounce of goodwill towards its own people, in spite of their patience. It still tramples on civil liberties, it refuses to free the multitude of prisoners of conscience, it has failed even in its vague promises of economic reform, and it continues to openly abuse its position of power to rake in every possible financial benefit the country has to offer. Rather than delivering some breathing space to its people, rather than trying to make a deal with the only people that matter long term, rather than responding positively to the united opposition's Damascus Declaration, the regime has continued to favor the Mafiosi approach. It is only interested in its own survival, its untold riches and its abusive powers.
The Syrian people feel let down, but they expect - and want - nothing from the powers that claim they're spreading democracy in the region; at the time of the Damascus winter, not a peep had been heard from them, because they preferred to support a regime on which they thought they could count to push their interests.
So why would Syrians now defend this regime? Because American pressure and the fears of a scenario à la Iraq are even worse. In fact, the Bush administration's idiotic approach and the UN's poor case for the moment have only convinced Syrians that the issue is much larger, and have scared them into preferring the devil they know. If you forgive the old pun, in fact, they are afraid that the US plans to throw out the baby with the Baath water.
The threat of looming sanctions only reinforces the despair of the Syrian people, who fear the possibility of cooperation (or the lack thereof) from a regime that only thinks of itself, and of its own endurance. The threat of sanctions also confirms America's complete disregard for the population, and its obsession with getting what it wants at any cost.
Detlev Mehlis's performance today at the Security Council will serve to both qualify and quantify the nature of the warnings to be made to Syria, and it will also define the parameters by which the Syrian regime must abide. Frankly, it doesn't matter anymore whether the Syrian regime eliminated Hariri: the world will be made to believe that it did, and it will support a suitable punishment. In fact, whether or not Syria killed Hariri (and Hariri's assassination was not the biggest crime of all), it will be paying for other misdemeanours (somewhat like Al Capone who was eventually cornered on tax evasion charges). Washington may turn Hariri's assassination for Syria what WMDs became for Iraq.
Syria has mostly itself to blame for much of this predicament. Now, it has absolutely no choice but to cooperate on Mehlis's terms, regardless of the demands: the regime is not in a position to argue over details and time is not on its side. It's therefore is rather futile to speak of "Syrian sovereignty" with regards to the interviews of senior figures of the regime outside of Syria. But the regime should think carefully about how many concessions it can make on other fronts in order to save the skin of a couple of figures: even a deal will be more of a diktat now that all roads seem blocked. The leak of a deal offer nearly two weeks ago, in retrospect, was another opportunity for the US to define the expectations, but not the compensation - which is getting more and more limited. Cooperation, at this late stage, is not only the sole option, but an unprofitable one at that; it will not have the lucrative elements of the Libya deal.
Deal or regime shake (if not change)? What if suspect Syrian officials are handed over, will the US have gotten what it wants? I strongly doubt it.
