60 days on
April 1, 2005
2 years of “liberation,” 9 months of “sovereignty” and 2 months of “democracy” later, Iraq is not doing well. For one thing, if this is how long it’s taking the Iraqi parliament to agree on a government, a speaker, and a president and prime minister, how long is it going to take them to agree on a constitution? It certainly doesn't look like any kind of agreement will be reached by August, after which the document should have been presented for a national referendum.
To summarize the last few weeks very crudely, the Shias and the Kurds each want control over the oil ministry (assuming they can get the Americans away from it that is) which may also determine control over oil-rich Kirkuk. And neither side has been able to impose on the other its choice for speaker of the parliament. As for the position of prime minister, it doesn't look like it's a done deal yet either.
In the meantime, as we approach the two-year anniversary of Iraq’s invasion, security is appalling. I wouldn’t even know which article to link here to illustrate the seriousness of the situation, but recent and terrifying examples abound on the Internet. The epidemic of killings, car bombs and kidnappings continues, over 10,000 prisoners are being held in jail by the US and there seems to be no end in sight. In addition, basic infrastructure and standards of living remain terribly lacking, and malnutrition in children has doubled since the invasion.
There is more and more talk about religion becoming a heavy (and dividing) factor in Iraq, with most Shia politicians making no secret of their wish to impose their own interpretation of Shari’a on the whole of Iraq. Most women have already taken to wearing a scarf and dressing more modestly, just to avoid trouble. One of the main contenders for the post of prime minister, Ibrahim Jaafari, had no qualms about the position of many in his alliance: in an interview he recently gave Der Spiegel, he confirmed that Iraq should become an Islamic state.
In fact, some Shia militants have already taken the law into their own hands, as was reported by a number of journalists. An innocent picnic turned into a nightmare when students were beaten to death by members of Al Mahdi Army for having committed the crime of listening to music. Anthony Shadid of the Washington Post describes the shocking events in much detail.
Even the British are beginning to show signs of nervousness, as exemplified by yesterday’s inexplicable raid on the house of MP Mansour Abdulrazzaq Mansour, one of their closest allies in Basra, smashing his car windows, computers to the ground, and taking $260,000 (don’t ask).
Dare anyone venture to guess what the third anniversary of the invasion will bring?
